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GalleryUKRAINE - MACROECONOMIC SITUATION - OCTOBER 2011
ANALYTICAL REPORT: by Olga Pogarska, Edilberto L. Segura
SigmaBleyzer Private Equity Investment Group & The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), Kyiv, Ukraine
U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC), Washington, D.C., Monday, August 29, 2011
SUMMARY POINTS
Download the FULL Report here
SigmaBleyzer Private Equity Investment Group & The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), Kyiv, Ukraine
U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC), Washington, D.C., Monday, August 29, 2011
SUMMARY POINTS
- Real sector performance kept improving in September, underpinned by buoyant consumption and a rich agricultural harvest.
- A more challenging external environment started weighing on export-oriented industries, which caused industrial production growth to decelerate to 6.4% yoy in September.
- Due to a better than expected harvest, we are slightly upgrading the real GDP growth forecast to 4.5% yoy in 2011.
- Consumer price inflation eased to 5.9% yoy in September. Despite an expected pick up through the rest of the year, year-end inflation should stay in single digits.
- The state budget deficit stood at UAH 5.2 billion, or 15% of the full-year target, thanks to robust tax revenue growth. However, the broad fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of GDP may still be missed due to larger Naftogaz imbalances.
- The IMF mission arrived in Kyiv on October 25th. Although it’s a positive sign, further cooperation with the IMF appears uncertain.
- In September, the current account kept widening on faster growth of imports than exports. In addition, the financial account switched to a large deficit amid larger capital outflows from the banking system and a high population demand for foreign currency.
- A worsened Balance of Payments is exerting depreciation pressure on the Hryvnia. But due to sizable NBU interventions on the forex market, the Hryvnia exchange rate with respect to the US Dollar remained virtually stable.
Download the FULL Report here
